Dalai Lama’s reincarnation: China reasserts it authority over Tibet

His Holiness The Dalai Lama announced his retirement as the political head of the Tibetans in march this year passing on his powers to an elected representative. The Tibetans accepted his will with a heavy heart. Now it’s the Kalon Tripa or Prime Minister who will represent them at international forums. There was however considerable hue and cry raised by the Chinese govt over this move by The Dalai Lama.

Just when the dust seem to be settled, a controversy over who will be the 15^th Dalai Lama has erupted. This time the whole Dalai Lama institution is under the dragon’s threat. An aging Dalai Lama has always maintained that he will divulge his reincarnation details when the ‘time ‘ comes. Now he has announced that he will do so once he turns 90. Dalai Lama is 76 now and there are good 14 years left before he does so.

It is noteworthy that the Dalai Lama had explained his decision based on a Buddhist teaching according to which each person has a right to decide on where and when they should reincarnate. Based on that, Dalai Lama said that if he decided to reincarnate, he would leave very strict guidelines on the where and when, so that the ones empowered to search for him would recognize him.

If he decides not to reincarnate, Dalai Lama added, then he will leave instructions about the way to recognize the new Dalai Lama, which, in his opinion, may be elected like the pope in Rome or like the politicians. The Tibetan spiritual leader has said that the instructions will be handed down as long as he still is in his mental and physical capacities, after he decides whether it is necessary to do it.

But the mere announcement about his reincarnation has raised a several eyebrows in Beijing. The Chinese Foreign Office spared no time in to declare that no one else but the government has right to appoint the next Dalai Lama! Also came a warning. Dalai Lama has not right to decide whether he wants to reincarnate or not.  The Dalai Lama contradicted this saying only two of his predecessors were selected by drawing lots from the ‘Golden Urn.’

It is important to discuss what happened to the 5^th Panchen Lama. The 2^nd highest priest of the Tibet appointed by the Dalai Lama went missing soon after the announcement and was replaced by the Chinese govt appointed successor. No one has heard about the Panchen Lama appointed by Dalai Lama since this incident which took place in 1995. The Dalai Lama has learnt his lessons pretty well and he will surely not allow this to happen to his own successor. 

Dalai Lama is a strong advocate of democracy and democratic norms.  Dharamshala, the capital of Tibetans in-exile has a government directly elected by the exiled Tibetans living world over through universal franchise. There is an autonomous election commission which conducts the whole exercise in accordance with the guidelines set by the parliament of the Tibetans. All this has been done under Dalai Lama’s guidance.

So, it would not be a surprise that he goes for an overhaul of the Dalai Lama institution and we might see the 15^th  Dalai Lama elected directly by the priests of the  ‘Gelug’ or the Yellow Hat branch of Buddhism just like the Pope.  But will China wait that long remains to be seen. The frequent protests in the Tibetan capital of Lhasa and the self immolations by monks at Kirti monastery continue to worry Beijing. 

South China Sea: Is India fishing in troubled waters?

China is heavily dependent on imports for its energy needs. With a booming economy and an urge to do more, the desire to become self reliant is increasingly felt.  Hidden treasures of South China Sea is the answer which the Chinese have been looking for. The volatile global oil market has added fuel to fire and provoked regional instability. With the exit of US from its bases in the region, the Red Dragon is getting desperate to call the shots even if it means being aggressive towards the South East Asian countries. This change in ‘attitude ‘ has alarmed Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and of course Vietnam. All these countries claim sovereignty in some form or the other over the disputed islands in the sea.

 The South China Sea contains rich oil & gas reserves, estimated at up to 28 billion barrels. But limiting the Chinese new found ‘assertiveness’ to its energy needs would be a fallacy. The South China Sea is the 2^nd most busiest sea trade route in the world and by claiming sovereignty over tiny islands in the sea, it can virtually call the shots.  One can understand the importance of this route by the comments of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at ASEAN meet in Vietnam last year. She said, ‘The United States has a national interest in freedom of navigation, open access to Asia’s maritime commons and respect for international law in the South China Sea”.

Why China wants India out of South China Sea

India, the world's fourth-biggest oil importer, buys in nearly 80% of its oil needs as expanding refining capacity has outpaced growth in local oil output. ONGC's local oil output has been almost stagnant in the last five years. The Indian government has charged ONGC with securing energy supplies overseas to fuel the country's fast-growing economy. ONGC Videsh Ltd., the overseas investment arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corp, has a stake in 33 projects in 14 countries including Vietnam.

ONGC Videsh has been in Vietnam for quite sometime in offshore oil and natural gas exploration field and that they were in the process of expanding cooperation and operation and Essar, a subsidiary of Essar Oil, has also been awarded a gas block in Vietnam. India has an investment of $400 million in Vietnamese hydrocarbons sectors, with ONGC-Videsh (OVL) having investment of $225 million in oil exploration projects in South China Sea. This has pitched OVL directly against Chinese state owned the China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) which is currently operating in South China Sea.

As a South Asian country, India actively takes part in East Asian issues through the support of the US, which has been advocating for Asian countries to counter China. India and Vietnam have already agreed to add greater content to their bilateral relations in defense and security, even as both sides are considering a request for Indian assistance in training Vietnamese naval crew to operate Russian-made Kilo-class submarines.

China is wary of increased Indian presence in waters close to its shores. The incident of harassment of an Indian navy ship, INS Airavat, sailing in the South China sea in July by the Chinese navy to get off the waters as it was China’s sovereign waters. Chinese frustration can be gauged from the fact that the Indian ship was on an official port call to Vietnam. Since then China has stepped up the ante and People’s Republic of China (PRC) foreign office spokesperson is a step further to scare India off South China Sea. 

But Govt of India has made it clear that its investment in Vietnam and bilateral relations will go ahead notwithstanding Chinese objections. The recent visit of Foreign Minister SM Krishna has further cemented its stand. This snub is being seen as a counter measure for Chinese presence in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK).  India has been repeatedly asking China to keep off PoK as it is a disputed territory.  Despite this, China has not only shown keen interest in helping Pakistan in developing infrastructure there but also is planning to open old silk route for trade.

South China Sea project helps India kill two birds with one stone. It will bring economic benefits to India while also balancing out China politically. With US firmly on its side, India is a country to watch out for in South East Asia. 

After Shaksgam Valley (Trans-Karakoram Tract) ..Dragon sets its eyes on Gilgit- Baltistan region of PoK

(Region shown as Northern Areas in the map..has been renamed as Gilgit-Baltistan: Pakistan divided its portion of Kashmir into two zones: Azad Kashmir (“free Kashmir”) in the west, and the Northern Areas. The Northern Areas were originally a non-self-governing area under Pakistani control, and have generally not been regarded by the international community as a part of Pakistan proper. India, for its part, has maintained that all of the former princely state of Kashmir is rightfully Indian territory.This situation changed somewhat in August 2009, when Pakistan renamed the Northern Areas Gilgit-Baltistan and allowed the election of a local legislative assembly. A month later, Pakistan signed an agreement with China for the building of a massive dam and hydro-electrical facility in the area………)

The Karakoram Highway (KKH) connecting Pakistan with China and built in 1978

with Chinese  assistance  runs  through PoK. The KKH  is  about  1280  kms  long  and

connects Havelian rail-head near Abbotabad in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province of

Pakistan with Kashgar, in the Xinjiang region  of China. The Pakistani section of the KKH is

about 800 kms long and much of it (about 580  kms) runs through the Gilgit-Baltistan region of  the PoK.  China has  taken special care  to  repair, renovate and upgrade it from time to time. The highway allegedly has been used for the  clandestine  transfer  of  nuclear material from China to Pakistan.  That this has  multile strategic implications for regional  security, especially that of India, has been underscored  28 by many experts China has also been undertaking many developmental projects  in PoK. Bordering Afghanistan, Tajikistan, China, India, and Pakistan, and as part of the larger disputed state of Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan is one of the most politically sensitive and geo-strategically situated regions in the world. As a resource-rich region abundant in minerals and energy-sources; a lynchpin for China to access Afghanistan, Iran, the Indian Ocean region, and Africa; China has over the past decade become increasingly involved in Gilgit-Baltistan both strategically and via economic investment. Chinese companies are working on a number of hydel projects in Pakistan, including NeelumJhelum, Gomal Zam and the raising of the height of the Mangla dam in PoK. With Chinese involvement in the region comes a wide array of political, security, and economic sensitivities, but also a slew of environmental concerns as Chinese-funded infrastructure projects like dams, mineral exploratory activities and strategic infrastructure development worth billions of dollars begs immediate attention.

During Zardari's visit to China in August 2009, both the countries signed MoUs on cooperation

for development of hydel, thermal and solar energy projects, and for promotion of river

fisheries and related technologies by cooperation between the Indus River Fresh Water

Fisheries  Research  Institute  and  the  Pearl  River  Fishery  Research  Institute  of

Guangzhou. It is believed that the Zhejiang Design Institute of Water Conservancy and

Hydroelectric Power (Zhejiang province) has already carried out feasibility studies for

building small and medium-sized dams in PoK. The media in Pakistan has reported

that such deals between China and Pakistan are not  transparent and often Chinese

companies  are  awarded  contracts  without  open  bidding,  “contrary  to  relevant

government rules and regulations as well as basic norms of transparency”. Therefore,

it is difficult to have a clear idea of the nature and extent of Chinese involvement in PoK

in particular. It is well known that China's objective is to gain direct access to the Gulf

through PoK by constructing highways, railways and ports.

Pakistan  has  ignored  the  resentment  of  the  people  of  Gilgit-Baltistan  against

increasing Chinese penetration into their area. The people of PoK had registered their

protest when Pakistan ceded the Trans Karakoram Tract to China in 1963.  The people of

the region fear that if the current pace of Chinese penetration is sustained then China

may completely  take over Gilgit Baltistan by  the year 2020. Besides,  there  is even a

suspicion that the Sunni majority state of Pakistan along with China may exterminate

the Shia minority in Gilgit Baltistan in order to silence all opposition to their policies in

future. Shia residents of Gilgit-Baltistan are Ismaili Muslims, members of a highly cosmopolitan and education-oriented sect of Shia Islam that is headed by the Aga Khan.
This is not an alarmist proposition and such prospects have been hinted at in a

New York Times article written by Selig Harrison(Published Aug’10). The article states

that at least 7000-11000 Chinese  troops have been stationed  in  the Gilgit Baltistan  region of  the PoK.

China has a strategic intent to dominate  PoK  in  general  and  Gilgit  Baltistan  in

particular. This area is contiguous to its own  Xinjiang province where Muslim separatist

feelings are  strong.  Along  with Tibet, Xinjiang has become a particularly large belt

of  instability  for  China.  Therefore,  the  Chinese  authorities  seem  to  be  preparing

themselves  to  take over  strict  control over  Gilgit Baltistan, should the central authority

in Pakistan becomes ineffective.

The Indian government should come out with a 'White Paper' on PoK to convey a clear and explicit message to Pakistan that it is in illegal occupation of the region. Notably, at the international level many people  are watching  India's moves  in  the  light of  rising

presence of China and militant activities in PoK.

Asimilar message needs to be conveyed to China which is seeking to fulfil its strategic objectives by involving itself in developmentak projects in  PoK. China's  role  in  PoK  is  totally unjustified in line with China's stand that Kashmir is a disputed territory. China should be made to explain as to why it is engaging itself in developmental works in a region, that is claimed by India, without its consent.

(Based on exerpts from The Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) report titled : Pakistan Occupied Kashmir : Changing the Discourse  and obeservations by experts at a seminar organised by  the South Asia Studies at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies in collaboration with the Institute for Gilgit-Baltistan Studies)